Archive for October 18, 2008

Fairfax Poll October 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,160 total voters,  (2.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 08 to 14 October 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43.0% (+2.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Winston Peters 1.0% (-1.0%)

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