Archive for October 12, 2008

Te Tai Tokerau Marae Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tokerau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 34.5%
  • Maori Party 46.8%
  • NZ First 5.6%
  • National 6.4%
  • Green 2.5%

Candidate Support

  • Kelvin Davis, Labour 25.8%
  • Hone Harawira, Maori Party 69.0%
  • Greens 3.4%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 41.4%
  • Winston Peters 9.9%
  • Pita Sharples 5.5%
  • John Key 4.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.7%
Country Direction
  • Right 49.3%
  • No 36.8%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Hone Harawira Performance
  • Very Satisfied 28.0%
  • Satisfied 50.1%
  • Not Satisfied 14.3%
  • Don’t Know 7.6%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 15.2%
  • Hone Harawira 31.2%
  • Tariana Turia 7.4%
  • Winston Peters 6.3%
  • Shane Jones 5.6%
  • Parekura Horomia 1.8%
  • Dover Samuels 1.4%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.2%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 19.3%
  • Education 13.5%
  • Law & Order 5.9%
  • Health 11.2%
  • Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 70.9% support, 17.3% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 25.4% support, 60.3% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 10.5%
  • Maori first 76.3%
  • Both 12.4%
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Tamaki Makaurau Marae Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tamaki Makaurau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 37.5%
  • Maori Party 41.2%
  • NZ First 7.3%
  • National 5.9%
  • Green 4.0%

Candidate Support

  • Louisa Wall, Labour 13.5%
  • Pita Sharples, Maori Party 77.4%
  • Mikaere Curtis, Greens 6.5%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 39.0%
  • Winston Peters 10.2%
  • Pita Sharples 7.2%
  • John Key 6.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.9%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.5%
  • No 39.7%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Pita Sharples Performance
  • Very Satisfied 26.2%
  • Satisfied 54.1%
  • Not Satisfied 9.4%
  • Don’t Know 10.4%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 32.8%
  • Hone Harawira 12.1%
  • Tariana Turia 9.0%
  • Winston Peters 7.0%
  • Parekura Horomia 4.6%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
  • Tau Henare 1.6%
  • Dover Samuels 1.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.0%
  • Georgina te Heuheu 1.0%
Most important issue
  • Education 16.8%
  • Law & Order 15.1%
  • Maori/Treaty 11.7%
  • Health 9.5%
  • Family Issues 8.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 71.3% support, 20.6% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 27.7% support, 63.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 72.2%
  • Both 11.8%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 12 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008 total voters and 860 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 4 October to 09 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 63 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (nc)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 38.0% (-3.0%)
  • Worse 42.0% (+4.0%)
  • Same 20.0% (-2.0%)

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