Archive for October 6, 2008

One News Colmar Brunton Poll early October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 total voters and 877 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 27 September to 02 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
Projected Seats
  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 58/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 41.0% (+1.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (nc)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 41.0% (-9.0%)
  • Worse 38.0% (+11.0%)
  • Same 22.0% (-1.0%)

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