Roy Morgan Poll late August 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 841 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-4.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (+0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 56
  • Labour 47
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 56 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • National 56 +Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 64/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 50.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (-5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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