Archive for September 6, 2008

Roy Morgan Poll late August 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 841 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-4.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (+0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 56
  • Labour 47
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 56 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • National 56 +Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 64/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 50.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (-5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)

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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents, (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 25 August 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-5.4%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+5.5%)
  • Green 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.3% (+2.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 45 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.6% (-0.5%)
  • Clark 45.0% (+1.0%)
  • Peters 5.6% (+0.7%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 24.7% (+1.8%)
  • Law & Order 17.0% (-0.2%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.3% (-0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8% (nc)

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Colmar Brunton on Peters as Foreign Minister

In August, Colmar Bruton asked whether the allegations about Winston Peters were having an impact on his job as Foreign Minister.

They asked regardless of whether you support New Zealand First, which of the following statements best sums up your opinion on whether this has affected Mr Peters’ ability to carry out his role as Foreign Minister.”

It was asked from 9-14 August 2008

  • It has affected his ability to a high degree – 27%
  • It has had some impact on his ability to do the job – 37%
  • It has made no difference to him doing the job – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 5%

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