Archive for July 21, 2008

Rail Purchase

The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll reported opinion on the buy back of rail.

68% of respondents supported the purchase with 24% against and 8% not sure. Even 56% of National voters support the buy back.

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One News/Colmar Brunton Poll July 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+6.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.8%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.7% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 44
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 8
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (nc)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)

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TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 6.0% (nc)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Personal Attacks
69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.

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Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.

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