curiablog

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 59.9% (+1.8%)
• Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
• Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
• ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
• Maori 2.4%  (+1.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 74
• Labour 33
• Green 8
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
• Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
• Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
• Peters 3.0%

Leadership Approval

• Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
• Goff  – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
• good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
• sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
• honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
• down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
• understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
• has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
• talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
• narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
• inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
• inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
• out of touch  – Goff by 7% (+4%)

• 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
• 30% say it was better than expected
• 14% worse than expected
• 2% don’t know