Posts Tagged Nielsen

Fairfax Poll October 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,160 total voters,  (2.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 08 to 14 October 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43.0% (+2.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Winston Peters 1.0% (-1.0%)

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Fairfax poll on NZ First

The Dominion Post reports further results from the Fairfax/Nielsen poll, on the issue of NZ First:

  • 48 per cent of voters believe Peters should be stood down from his ministerial positions over questions surrounding donations to NZ First, with 37% disagreeing and 15% unsure
  • On whether NZ First should be involved in discussions after the election about the formation of the next government, 37% support a Labour doing a deal with NZ First and 52% against. For a deal with National 26% say yes and 54% say no.

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Fairfax Poll August 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,102 total voters, 981 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 to 12 August 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 46
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)
Issues
  • 35% think National can afford significantly bigger tax cuts than Labour, 48% disagree
  • 45% think personal finances get better in next 12 months, 30% worse

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