curiablog

Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.

The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

• Labour 38.4%
• Maori 22.2%
• National 16.4%
• Mana 8.5%
• Green 6.5%
• NZ First 5.1%
• ACT 1.0%

Party Vote – General roll Maori voters

• Labour 43.5%
• Maori 11.7%
• National 22.4%
• Mana 1.6%
• Green 8.1%
• NZ First 7.1%
• ACT 2.9%

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

• Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
• Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
• National 13.2% (7.4%)
• Mana 12.0%
• Green 5.6% (3.9%)
• NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
• ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)

• Maori 37.5%
• Labour 35.1%
• Mana 13.8%
• National 5.6%
• Green 2.5%
• NZ First 2.5%

Te Tai Tokerau

• Labour 30.2%
• Mana 28.6%
• Maori 22.2%

Tamaki Makaurau

• Maori 46.1%
• Labour 30.4%
• Mana 15.7%

Waiariki

• Maori 59.3%
• Mana 18.7%
• Labour 8.8%

Te Tai Tonga

• Labour 41.4%%
• Maori 34.5%
• Mana 3.4%

Tainui

• Labour 58.8%%
• Maori 12.9%
• Mana 17.6%

Te Tai Hauauru

• Labour 40.3%%
• Maori 48.6%%
• Mana 1.4%

Ikaroa Rawhiti

• Labour 40.5%%
• Maori 31.6%
• NZ First 10.1%
• Mana 8.9%

With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:

• Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
• Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
• Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
• Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
• Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
• Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
• Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability

Has Maori Party represented Maori well?

• Yes 56%
• No 34%

Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?

• Yes 54%
• No 28%

Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?

• Yes 69%
• No 21%

Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?

• Yes 35%
• No 54%

Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?

• Yes 47%
• No 31%

Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?

• Yes 77%
• No 9%

Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?

• Yes 55%
• No 35%

Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?

• Pita Sharples 22%
• Tariana Turia 20%
• Hone Harawira 11%
• Winston Peters 3.8%
• Shane Jones 3.6%

Preferred PM

• John Key 33%
• Pita Sharples 7%
• Tariana Turia 4.8%
• Phil Goff 4.4%
• Hone Harawira 3.9%
• Winston Peters 3.7%
• Shane Jones 2.8%