curiablog

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 890 have a party preference, (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 August to 10 August 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 54.5% (-0.8%)
• Labour 30.6% (+0.1%)
• Green 9.5% (+2.0%)
• ACT 2.2% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.5%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 1.5% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 37
• Green 12
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 0
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 48.7% (-0.9%)
• Clark 2.3% (-2.6%)
• Goff 7.4% (+2.3%)
• Peters 3.7% (+0.9%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 69.9% (+0.9%) doing well vs 15.9% (nc) doing poorly – net positive is 54.0% (+0.9%)
• Goff  – 30.9% (+3.7%) doing well vs 43.9% (-1.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -13.0% (+5.2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• capable leader – Key by 44% (+6%)
• good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+7%)
• sound judgement – Key by 21% (nc)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+1%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• more style than substance – Key by 13% (-1%)
• talk down to people – Goff by 2% (-8%)
• narrow minded – Goff by 6% (-3%)
• inflexible – Goff by 7% (+2%)

• 76% say tighten rules
• 14% say leave as it is
• 8% say relax the rules

• 35% say keep at 80
• 36% say reduce to 50
• 28% say reduce to zero