Archive for Uncategorized
October 12, 2009 at 2:36 pm
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Bill English, Colmar Brunton, MPs expenses, NZ Issues Polls, One News
Colmar Brunton polled on Bill English for One News, as part of their 1,000 respondent poll in September 2009. Findings:
- 30% think Bill English has acted with integrity over his housing allowance
- 54% think he has not
- 62% think his actions have damaged his credibility as Finance Minister, while 29% disagree
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August 2, 2009 at 6:59 pm
· Filed under Uncategorized
Research NZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 6 to 9 July:
- 61% agree with extending by a year the tour of duty of 140 troops working on reconstruction projects
- 47% support sending SAS soldiers to Afghanistan and 44% are against
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April 6, 2009 at 8:14 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Colmar Brunton, Economy, NZ Political Party Polls, One News, Preferred PM
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: Approx 1,000 adults
Dates: Probably 28 March to 2 April 2009
Client: One News
Report: TVNZ
Party Support
- National 57.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 31.0% (+3.0%)
- Green 7.0% (+1.0%)
- ACT 1.6% (-1.5%)
- Maori 2.2% (-1.2%)
- United Future not reported yet
- Progressive not reported yet
- NZ First not reported yet
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 37
- Green 8
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/124 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/124 -17 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Economic Outlook
- 42% economy over next 12 months will be better (+5.0%)
- 19% same (-2.0%)
- 39% worse (-3.0%)
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March 7, 2009 at 1:30 pm
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Country Direction, NZ Political Party Polls, Roy Morgan
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 938 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 2 January to 15 February 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 48.5% (+0.5%)
- Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
- Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
- ACT 2.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 3.5% (nc)
- United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Progressive 1.0% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 2.5% (+1.05%)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 40
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/121 – majority possible
- Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 57/121 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 63.5% (-1.5%)
- Wrong 20.5% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 16.0% (+1.0%)
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March 7, 2009 at 11:41 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM, TV3
Polling Company: TNS (under a new name)
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: Published 18 Feb, so probably from 10 to 15 Feb 2009
Client: TV3
Report: None online
Party Support
- National 60.0% (+14.0%)
- Labour 27.0% (-6.1%)
- Green 7.0% (-2.0%)
- ACT 1.2% (-1.6%)
- Maori 2.1% (-0.6%)
- United Future 0.2% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 1.5% (-1.9%)
Projected Seats
- National 74
- Labour 33
- Green 9
- ACT 1
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 74 = 74/124 – majority possible
- Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 5 = 48/124 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National, and Greens, Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour, with Maori Party able to go either way.
Preferred PM
- Key 52.0% (+15.4%)
- Clark 13.8% (-20.4%)
- Goff 3.7% (+3.7%)
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November 7, 2008 at 5:38 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Digipoll, NZ Herald, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 981 respondents of whom 920 (6.1% are undecided) were decided, (3.4% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 29 October to 02 November 2008
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald main story
Party Support
- National 47.9% (-2.5%)
- Labour 36.4% (-0.6%)
- Green 5.8% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 3.9% (+1.8%)
- Maori 2.3% (-0.1%)
- United Future 0.7% (+0.5%)
- ACT 1.8% (+0.6%)
- Progressive 0.2% (-0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 61
- Labour 46
- Green 7
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 2
- Progressive 1
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 61 + ACT 2 = 63/122 – majority possible
- Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 4 = 58/122 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 46.2 (+1.6%)
- Clark 41.6% (-3.8%)
- Peters 5.0% (+1.0%)
Most influential issue
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October 12, 2008 at 7:02 pm
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Coalition Options, Digipoll, Hone Harawira, Maori, Marae, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM, Te Tai Tokerau
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tokerau voters
Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008
Client: Marae
Report: TVNZ
Party Support
- Labour 34.5%
- Maori Party 46.8%
- NZ First 5.6%
- National 6.4%
- Green 2.5%
Candidate Support
- Kelvin Davis, Labour 25.8%
- Hone Harawira, Maori Party 69.0%
- Greens 3.4%
Preferred PM
- Helen Clark 41.4%
- Winston Peters 9.9%
- Pita Sharples 5.5%
- John Key 4.7%
- Tariana Turia 5.7%
Country Direction
- Right 49.3%
- No 36.8%
- Don’t Know 13.8%
Hone Harawira Performance
- Very Satisfied 28.0%
- Satisfied 50.1%
- Not Satisfied 14.3%
- Don’t Know 7.6%
Most effective Maori MP
- Pita Sharples 15.2%
- Hone Harawira 31.2%
- Tariana Turia 7.4%
- Winston Peters 6.3%
- Shane Jones 5.6%
- Parekura Horomia 1.8%
- Dover Samuels 1.4%
- Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
- Te Ururoa Flavell 1.2%
Most important issue
- Maori/Treaty 19.3%
- Education 13.5%
- Law & Order 5.9%
- Health 11.2%
- Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
- Maori Party coalition with Labour – 70.9% support, 17.3% do not
- Maori Party coalition with National – 25.4% support, 60.3% do not
Identity
- New Zealander First 10.5%
- Maori first 76.3%
- Both 12.4%
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October 11, 2008 at 7:37 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Country Direction, NZ Political Party Polls, Roy Morgan
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 923 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 22 September to 05 Friday 2008
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 40.5% (-7.0%)
- Labour 37.5% (+1.0%)
- Green 9.0% (+2.5%)
- NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
- Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
- United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
- ACT 3.5% (+2.0%)
- Progressive 1.0% (+1.0%)
- Other 1.5% (+0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 52
- Labour 48
- Green 11
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 4
- Progressive 1
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 52 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 63/123 – majority possible
- National 57 + ACT4 + Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
- Labour 48 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6 = 66/123 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
- Right 48.0% (+4.0%)
- Wrong 39.5% (-1.5%)
- Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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September 26, 2008 at 8:24 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged 2008 US Presidential Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Sarah Palin, UMR
A UMR poll from 11 to 14 September found:
- 65% of NZers back Barack Obama
- 11% back John McCain
- Obama gets 69% support from Labour voters, 63% from National voters, 74% from white collar workers and 58% from blue collar workers
- 55% of NZers approved of McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin, with 25% disapproving
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September 26, 2008 at 7:42 am
· Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged cellphones
JafaPete blogs on US Research from Pew on whether or not respondents who have a cellphone and not a landline differ from those with landlines.
The answer in the US if yes they do, but the overall impact on findings is still relatively modest.
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