Archive for Uncategorized
April 1, 2012 at 7:09 pm · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Colmar Brunton, One News
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000
Undecideds:
Dates: assume 25 March to 29 March 2012
Client: One News
Report: One News
Party Support
- National 51.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 29.0% (+1.0%)
- Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
- ACT 1% (-0.7%)
- Maori 1% (-1.0%)
- United Future 0% (-0.1%)
- Mana 1% (NC)
- NZ First 3% (-1.2%)
- Conservative 1% (-1.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 65
- Labour 38
- Green 14
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Conservative 0
- Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 53/122 -9 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 48% (-4%)
- David Shearer 11% (-4% from Goff)
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November 23, 2011 at 8:08 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Polling Company: Research International
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000, of whom 838 are decided
Undeicdeds: 15.6%
Dates: 17 to 21 November 2011
Client: Fairfax
Report: Stuff
Party Support
- National 54.0% (+1.5%)
- Labour 26.0% (+0.1%)
- Green 12.0% (-0.6%)
- ACT 0.7% (-0.3%)
- Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
- United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
- Mana 1.1% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 4.0% (+1.2%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 33
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 51.5% (-0.7%)
- Phil Goff 12.5% (-1.0%)
- Winston Peters 3.5% (-0.4%)
Preferred Government
- Prefer one party to govern alone 39.7%
- Prefer coalition 54.1%
- No preference 3%
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October 26, 2010 at 9:40 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 924, of whom 859 have a party preference
Dates: 04 October to 17 October 2010
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 52.5% (+3.0%)
- Labour 33.0% (-3.5%)
- Green 8.5% (+0.5%)
- ACT 0.5% (nc)
- Maori 1.5% (-1.0%)
- United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
- NZ First 2.5% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 65
- Labour 41
- Green 10
- ACT 1
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 0
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 = 51/123 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 60.5% (-1.0%)
- Wrong 24.0% (+2.0%)
- Can’t Say 15.5% (-1.0%)
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January 3, 2010 at 3:10 am · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Country Direction, Economy, Leader Ratings, media, Mood of the Nation, NZ Issues Polls, NZ Political Party Polls, UMR, unemployment
UMR have published a 42 page mood of the nation for 2009. Some extracts:
- 68% say 2010 will be better than 2009, with 20% disagreeing
- At year end 61% expect economy to get better, and 22% worse
- 41% expect their family’s living standards to get better, and 22% worse
- 49% expect unemployment to go up, and 26% down
- 64% expect interest rates to increase and 11% decrease
- In ten years time, respondents expect the economy (net +22%) to be better, race relations (+16%), transport (+6%), policing (+11%), education (+4%) and the environment (+1%). A net 9% think the health system will be worse.
- 59% say country heading on right track and 30% wrong track. average for yeas was 65% to 23%.
- Corporate net favourable ratings were NZ Post +84%, Telecom +27%, Air NZ +67%, TVNZ +60%
- Bank favourability ratings are Kiwibank 65%, National 55%, ASB 55%, Westpac 55%, BNZ 49%, ANZ 45% and TSB 34%
- Net favourability for Govt agencies are Fire Service +86%, Police +57%, Customs +63%, DOC +57%, MAF +36%, MOD +31%, Nat Lib +44%, MFish +34%, IRD +5%, MOT +5%, NZFSA +19%, Min Ed -4%, Min Health -7%, Treasury -6%, MOJ – 14%, DOL – 5%, Corrections -27%, ACC -37%, MSD -13% and TPK -7%
- Confidence in institutions is Police +30%, GPs +29%, Unis +27%, primary schools +26%, military +6%, small business +5%, sec schools +3%, TV News -10%, banks -13%, public health system -18%, courts -16%, public service -29%, newspapers -33%, religion -34%, Parliament -43%, big business -40%, unions -42%, media generally -55%
- Party Vote Dec 2009 is Nat 48%, Lab 35%, Greens 7.5%
- Net favourability for John Key +54%, Phil Goff +9%,
- Top five issues are economy 33%, unemployment 14%, crime 11%, health care 4%, politics/govt 4%
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December 21, 2009 at 2:28 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 858 (3.4% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 30 November to 13 December 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 54.0% (+0.5%)
- Labour 27.5% (-3.0%)
- Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
- ACT 1.5% (nc)
- Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
- United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
- NZ First 4.0% (+1.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 68
- Labour 35
- Green 12
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 48/124 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 62.5% (-3.5%)
- Wrong 25.0% (+3.0%)
- Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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August 2, 2009 at 6:59 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Research NZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 6 to 9 July:
- 61% agree with extending by a year the tour of duty of 140 troops working on reconstruction projects
- 47% support sending SAS soldiers to Afghanistan and 44% are against
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April 6, 2009 at 8:14 am · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Colmar Brunton, Economy, NZ Political Party Polls, One News, Preferred PM
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: Approx 1,000 adults
Dates: Probably 28 March to 2 April 2009
Client: One News
Report: TVNZ
Party Support
- National 57.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 31.0% (+3.0%)
- Green 7.0% (+1.0%)
- ACT 1.6% (-1.5%)
- Maori 2.2% (-1.2%)
- United Future not reported yet
- Progressive not reported yet
- NZ First not reported yet
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 37
- Green 8
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/124 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/124 -17 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Economic Outlook
- 42% economy over next 12 months will be better (+5.0%)
- 19% same (-2.0%)
- 39% worse (-3.0%)
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March 7, 2009 at 1:30 pm · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged Country Direction, NZ Political Party Polls, Roy Morgan
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 938 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 2 January to 15 February 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 48.5% (+0.5%)
- Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
- Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
- ACT 2.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 3.5% (nc)
- United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Progressive 1.0% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 2.5% (+1.05%)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 40
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/121 – majority possible
- Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 57/121 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 63.5% (-1.5%)
- Wrong 20.5% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 16.0% (+1.0%)
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