Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-4.3%)
• Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
• Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 34
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
• David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

• 30% say all parties do it
• 28% say National worst
• 17% Internet-Mana
• 17% Labour
• 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
• 8% say it has led them to change their vote
• 55% say all politicians play “dirty”