One News Colmar Brunton Poll 24 Nov 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+2.0%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (-1%)
  • Phil Goff 15% (+2%)
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