Archive for October 2, 2011

3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 57.4% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
  • Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
  • Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
  • Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

  • 24% say worse off from three years ago
  • 19% better off

Greens

  • 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
  • 30% say they should not
  • 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
  • 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 24 to 28 September 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 48/122 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59% (+2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 45% (-4%)
  • Worse 35% (+5%)
  • Same 20% (nc)

NZ doing good job of Rugby World Cup Hosting

  • Yes 90%
  • No 5%

Blame for RWC Opening Night Issues

  • The Government 14%
  • The Auckland Council 65%
  • Neither 6%
  • Other 8%

Knowledge of Date of General Election

  • End of this year 77%
  • Next year 11%
  • Not announced yet 8%
  • Unsure 4%

What outcome matters more

  • Rugby World Cup 30%
  • General Election 66%

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Marae Digipoll September 2011

Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.

The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Maori 22.2%
  • National 16.4%
  • Mana 8.5%
  • Green 6.5%
  • NZ First 5.1%
  • ACT 1.0%

Party Vote – General roll Maori voters

  • Labour 43.5%
  • Maori 11.7%
  • National 22.4%
  • Mana 1.6%
  • Green 8.1%
  • NZ First 7.1%
  • ACT 2.9%

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

  • Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
  • Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
  • National 13.2% (7.4%)
  • Mana 12.0%
  • Green 5.6% (3.9%)
  • NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)

  • Maori 37.5%
  • Labour 35.1%
  • Mana 13.8%
  • National 5.6%
  • Green 2.5%
  • NZ First 2.5%

Te Tai Tokerau

  • Labour 30.2%
  • Mana 28.6%
  • Maori 22.2%

Tamaki Makaurau

  • Maori 46.1%
  • Labour 30.4%
  • Mana 15.7%

Waiariki

  • Maori 59.3%
  • Mana 18.7%
  • Labour 8.8%

Te Tai Tonga

  • Labour 41.4%%
  • Maori 34.5%
  • Mana 3.4%

Tainui

  • Labour 58.8%%
  • Maori 12.9%
  • Mana 17.6%

Te Tai Hauauru

  • Labour 40.3%%
  • Maori 48.6%%
  • Mana 1.4%

Ikaroa Rawhiti

  • Labour 40.5%%
  • Maori 31.6%
  • NZ First 10.1%
  • Mana 8.9%

With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:

  • Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
  • Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
  • Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
  • Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
  • Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability

Has Maori Party represented Maori well?

  • Yes 56%
  • No 34%

Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?

  • Yes 54%
  • No 28%

Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?

  • Yes 69%
  • No 21%

Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?

  • Yes 35%
  • No 54%

Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?

  • Yes 47%
  • No 31%

Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?

  • Yes 77%
  • No 9%

Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?

  • Yes 55%
  • No 35%

Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?

  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Tariana Turia 20%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Winston Peters 3.8%
  • Shane Jones 3.6%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 33%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Tariana Turia 4.8%
  • Phil Goff 4.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.9%
  • Winston Peters 3.7%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%

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