Archive for September, 2011
September 28, 2011 at 9:27 am · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Fairfax, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM, Research International
Polling Company: Research International
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000
Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011
Client: Fairfax
Report: Stuff
Party Support
- National 54.3% (-2.8%)
- Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
- Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
- ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
- Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
- United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
- Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
- NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 68
- Labour 35
- Green 13
- ACT 2
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
- Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
- Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
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September 17, 2011 at 4:15 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Country Direction, NZ Political Party Polls, Roy Morgan
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference
Undecideds: 6%
Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 57.0% (+5.0%)
- Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
- Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
- ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
- Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- NZ First 3.5% (nc)
- Mana 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 71
- Labour 33
- Green 9
- ACT 2
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
- Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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September 5, 2011 at 8:34 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Country Direction, NZ Political Party Polls, Roy Morgan
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference
Undecideds: 5%
Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 52.0% (+1.5%)
- Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
- Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
- ACT 2.0% (nc)
- Maori 1.5% (nc)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
- Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 65
- Labour 37
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
- Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
- Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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September 5, 2011 at 8:16 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Fairfax, Labour, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM, Research International, Rugby World Cup
Polling Company: Research International
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference
Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011
Client: Fairfax
Report: Stuff
Party Support
- National 57.1% (+1.1%)
- Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
- Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
- ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
- Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
- United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
- Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 32
- Green 14
- ACT 1
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
- Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
- Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)
Labour Leadership
- 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
- 11% say less likely
- 65% say no difference
Rugby World Cup
- 68% think NZ will win
- 11% Australia
- 7% South Africa
- 2% England
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September 5, 2011 at 7:49 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Country Direction, Digipoll, NZ Herald, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone
Undecideds: 11.2%
Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference
Dates: 19 to 26 August 2011
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald
Party Support
- National 52.0% (-0.3%)
- Labour 31.5% (-1.6%)
- Green 9.8% (+1.5%)
- NZ First 2.4% (+1.5%)
- Maori 1.8% (-0.2%)
- United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
- ACT 1.2% (-0.2%)
- Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 65
- Labour 39
- Green 12
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 1
- Mana 1
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 69.7% (-0.6%)
- Goff 11.5% (+2.2%)
- Peters 5.2% (+2.2%)
- Clark 5.8% (-2.1%)
Direction
- Right 59.5% (+2.0%)
- Wrong 32.2% (-1.6%)
- Unsure 8.3% (-0.4%)
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September 5, 2011 at 7:31 pm · Filed under NZ Issues Polls, NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged 3 News, asset sales, Capital Gains Tax, CGT, Leader Ratings, privatisation, Reid Research, TV3
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011
Client: 3 News
Report:
Party Support
- National 54.0% (-1.1%)
- Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
- Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
- ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.7%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
- NZ First 2.2% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 67
- Labour 36
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 53% (+2.5%)
- Goff 8% (+1.1%)
Leadership Approval
- Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
- Goff – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)
Policy Preference
- 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales
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September 5, 2011 at 6:52 pm · Filed under NZ Issues Polls, NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Colmar Brunton, NZ Political Party Polls, One News, rugby, Rugby World Cup
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,006, of whom 847 had a party preference
Undecideds: 11%
Dates: 13 to 17 August 2011
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 56.0% (+3.0%)
- Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
- Green 6.0% (-4.0%)
- ACT 1.7% (-1.4%)
- Maori 1.4% (-1.6%)
- United Future 0.5% (+0.2%)
- Mana 0.9% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 2.3% (-0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 37
- Green 8
- ACT 2
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 57% (+3%)
- Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
- Winston Peters 2% (-1%)
Economic Outlook
- Better 49% (-3%)
- Worse 31% (+3%)
- Same 19% (-1%)
Rugby World Cup
- Hosting cost of $40m is money well spent – 54% agree, 40% disagree
- 50% less likely to buy Adidas in future due to jersey prices
- 69% think All Blacks will win, 17% do not
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