One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 adults, of whom 837 are decided

Dates: 19 September to 24 September 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

• National 54.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
• Green 4.3% (-2.7%)
• ACT 3.2% (+2.2%)
• Maori 2.7% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.4% (-0.1%)
• NZ First 1.7% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 42
• Green 0
• ACT 4
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

• 70% economy over next 12 months will be better (+10.0%)
• 16% same (-2.0%)
• 13% worse (-9.0%)

Preferred PM

• John Key 50% (-1.0%)
• Phil Goff 9% (+2%)
• Helen Clark 4% (+1%)