Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 July to 19 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)
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