Archive for July 26, 2009

Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 July to 19 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Leave a Comment

Waitakere City Phoenix Research Poll on Auckland

Phoenix Research did a poll for Waitakere City Council on Auckland Governance. 400 Waitakere residents were polled:

  • 34% favour a super city and 48% are oppossed
  • 78% agreed with the statement “All of the councillors on the new Auckland Council should be elected by people in their local area (that is by Ward) rather than elected by people across the whole region (that is At Large)”. As with the NSCC poll I regard this question as misleading as it does not include the clear option of a mixture of at large and wards despite this being what is proposed.
  • 42% support Maori seats and 44% do not

Comments (1)

North Shore City Colmar Brunton Poll on Auckland

Colmar Brunton did a poll for North Shore City Council on Auckland Governance. It was from 2 to 8 July 2009, and polled 801 ratepayers of North Shore, taken from the White Pages, with a minimum 250 per ward.

The results are weighted by ward population. They have asked for ratepayers only, so residents who do not pay rates may have been excluded.

  • 47% favour a super city and 36% are oppossed
  • 11% said their democratic representation would be better off, 48% much the same and 40% worse off
  • 80% agreed with the statement “All of the councillors on the new Auckland Council should be elected by people in their local area (that is ‘by Ward’) rather than elected by people across the whole region (that is ‘At Large’)”. Note in my opinion that question is faulty as it does not give the option of there being a mixture of wards and at large – as recommended by the Royal Commission and the Government.

Comments (1)

UMR on David Bain

UMR polled 750 NZers in June on David Bain.

In early June a net 39% thought he was not guilty. By late June this dropped to 16%.

Of the 47% who think Bain is not guilty, 79% support compensation of $1.5 million.

Leave a Comment

UMR on Business Leaders

UMR polled 750 NZers in June 2009 on favourability ratings of 11 business leaders. Their net favourability ratings were:

  1. Peter Jackson +81%
  2. Stephen Tindall +58%
  3. Mike Pero +48%
  4. Graeme Hart + 32%
  5. Rob Fyfe +22%
  6. Mark Weldon +13%
  7. Craig Norgate +11%
  8. Paul Reynolds +8%
  9. Jonathan Ling +5%
  10. Eric Watson -4%

Leave a Comment

UMR poll on Auckland Mayor

UMR polled 482 Aucklanders as part of two omnibus surveys of 1,500 NZers in June and July 2009. The maximum margin of error at 95% confidence is 4.5%.

Questions were asked on possible two-way clashes for the Auckland Mayoralty.

John Banks vs Mike Lee has 35% Banks, 18% Lee, 22% unsure and 25% don’t know enough.

John Banks vs Len Brown has 34% Banks, 35% Brown, 14% unsure and 17% don’t know enough.

The demographic breakdowns have high margins of error. But the margins between Banks and Brown are:

  • Men +5% (Banks 5% ahead of Brown)
  • Women -6%
  • South Auckland -23%
  • Central Auckland +1%
  • East Auckland +0%
  • West Auckland +5%
  • North Shore +8%
  • Under 30s +16%
  • 30 – 44 yrs +1%
  • 45 – 59 yrs -15%
  • 60+ yrs -8%
  • Under $30K pers income -1%
  • $30 to $50k +18%
  • Over $50k -7%

Leave a Comment

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 32 other followers