Archive for July 20, 2009

Roy Morgan late June 2009 poll

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 June to 5 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+1.5%)

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Roy Morgan mid June 2009 poll

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 June to 14 June 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (nc)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+0.5)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 69.0% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.0%

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