curiablog

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 May to 31 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
• Green 8.5% (-1.0%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 38
• Green 10
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 65.5% (-2.0%)
• Wrong 20.0% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%