Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)
Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008
Client: One News
Report: Not found
Party Support
- National 47.0% (nc)
- Labour 35.0% (nc)
- Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 2.4% (-0.6%)
- Maori 1.3% (-1.5%)
- United Future 0%
- ACT 2.5% (-0.4%)
- Progressive 0%
Projected Seats
- National 58
- Labour 43
- Green 12
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 58 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – majority possible
- Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4 = 60/122 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.
Ben Raue said
Sorry, how could the Maori Party win four seats if you are assuming that they will win six Maori seats? I notice the same on your sidebar poll average.
Graeme Edgeler said
My calculations with those numbers have National at 59 seats, Labour on 44 seats and the Greens on 11 with 123 seats all up.
I wanted to check because the TVNZ poll having National on 47% had them at fewer seats than the TV3 poll which has them on 46%.