One News/Colmar Brunton September 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters and 854 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 6 September to 11 September 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 50% (+6%)
  • Same 23% (+5%)
  • Worse 27% (-11%)
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