Archive for September, 2008
September 29, 2008 at 6:25 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Coalition Options, National, New Zealand First, TNS, TV3
TV3/TNS asked about coalition options for National:
- 51% think John Key will do a coalition with NZ First if it is the only way he can become PM, 41% do not
- 57% approve of ACT as a coalition partner for National, 30% do not
- 47% approve of United Future as coalition partner for National, 36% do not
- 47% approve of Maori Party as coalition partner for National, 42% do not
- 39% approve of the Greens as coalition partner for National, 52% do not
- 20% approve of NZ First as coalition partner for National, 72% do not
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September 28, 2008 at 9:48 pm · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Leader Ratings, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM, TNS, TV3
Polling Company: TNS
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: estimated to be 20 September to 25 September 2008
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
- National 49.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 36.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 5.0% (-1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (nc)
- Maori 2.0% (nc)
- United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
- ACT 2.0% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 62
- Labour 46
- Green 6
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/125 – majority possible
- Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 60/125 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 34.0% (nc)
- Clark 32.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Ratings
- Clark – 58% (-5%) performing well vs 27% (+5%) performing badly
- Key – 55% (-1%) performing well vs 24% (+4%) performing badly
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September 26, 2008 at 11:09 am · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Digipoll, NZ Herald, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 700 respondents, (3.8% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 15 September to 24 September 2008
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.
Party Support
- National 51.4% (+1.4%)
- Labour 35.7% (-0.6%)
- Green 4.9% (-0.2%)
- NZ First 2.8% (+0.7%)
- Maori 2.8% (-0.3%)
- United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
- ACT 1.1% (-1.2%)
- Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 68
- Labour 47
- Green 0
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 68/124 – majority possible
- Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 55/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 45.5% (-1.1%)
- Clark 43.1% (-1.9%)
- Peters 4.0% (-1.6%)
Most influential issue
- Economy 28.0% (+3.3%)
- Law & Order 17.8% (+0.8%)
- Tax Cuts 16.5% (+0.2%)
- Hospital Waiting Lists 10.3% (-3.5%)
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September 26, 2008 at 7:42 am · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged cellphones
JafaPete blogs on US Research from Pew on whether or not respondents who have a cellphone and not a landline differ from those with landlines.
The answer in the US if yes they do, but the overall impact on findings is still relatively modest.
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September 20, 2008 at 11:27 am · Filed under NZ Political Party Polls ·Tagged Fairfax, NZ Political Party Polls, Preferred PM
Polling Company: Nielsen
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,130 total voters, 983 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 11 to 17 August September 2008 (estimated)
Client: Fairfax Media
Report: Stuff and Stuff
Party Support
- National 52.0% (-2.0%)
- Labour 34.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 5.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (nc)
- Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 1.0% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 66
- Labour 43
- Green 6
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 1
- Progressive 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 66 = 66/124 – majority possible
- Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 41.0% (-2.0%)
- Clark 30.0 (-1.0%)
- Peters 2.0% (nc)
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